Mike Warmington, Platform 1

 This year has been marked by fluctuations in the business exit landscape. The first quarter saw lots of activity and some deal flow. The middle two quarters saw business owners contemplating transitioning out, more likely to hold off as they endured a tougher sales environment putting the squeeze on their businesses.

Our meeting numbers with business owners we had not previously met were significantly up on 2024, however this did not translate into as many engagements as we would normally expect from that level of activity.

The market is experiencing record demand from individuals seeking business ownership or transition opportunities.

Three Reserve Bank OCR cuts since August  and lower interest rates made a noticeable positive difference ,along with increasingly positive business confidence survey results.

We have found more business owners we spoke to during the year are only now prepared to either push the button on engagement now or indicate they will take action in early 2026.

Having held off  through COVID and the recent recession many owners are years behind in their exit planning or executing .In our opinion NZ faces the largest business ownership transition it has ever seen :

• Over 50% of New Zealand SME owners are aged 55 or older
• Over 40% of business owners plan to exit in the next 5 years
• Over 70% of business owners plan to exit in the next 10 years

While exact numbers are assumptions, figures from a variety of other sources all quote essentially the same statistics.This demographic reality means thousands of businesses will change hands in the next decade creating both challenges and opportunities.

Here’s what I’m seeing in the market:

• Management Buy-Ins  are gaining awareness and traction  – external talented entrepreneurial people transitioning in over time.
• Employee Ownership Models are emerging to keep businesses locally owned and resilient.
• Businesses who have evaluated all options first  and have a clear strategy, get the best outcome.

The next five years will reshape business ownership in NZ. Those who plan early will benefit, but  those who wait, risk losing control of their exit.