Construction sector forecast to remain a major economic contributor
New Zealand dwelling building activity to strengthen further post-Christchurch rebuild Driven by strong activity particularly in Auckland Amid housing demand from its population growth and a shortage in housing supply Infrastructure construction to be boosted by Accelerated Auckland Transport Programme The construction sector in New Zealand is forecast to continue to contribute positively to the country’s economy over the medium term, according to leading industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Shrapnel. While the sector will be led by a renewed surge in dwelling building activity to new highs in the second half of the five-year outlook period, overall non-residential and infrastructure construction activities are likely to remain at relatively high levels. According to the company’s Building and Construction in New Zealand 2016-2021 report, the value of building (residential and non-residential) is expected to peak in 2016/17, capping off a five-year upturn. However, following a modest decline in dwelling activity forecast for 2017/18, BIS Shrapnel expects reasonably strong rebounds in the activity level (led by Auckland) over the three years to 2020/21 to lift the value of new dwelling consents to a fresh high of around NZ$6 billion in real terms. The value of non-residential building consents (new, and alterations and additions) is expected to remain at relatively high levels, averaging NZ$3.3 billion per annum in real terms over the five-year outlook period – which is comparable to the level over the preceding five-year period. The next dwelling building upturn is likely to drive consents in New Zealand up to around 32,000 by 2020/21, which is comparable to the peak level during the 2003/04 building boom. “The ‘other’ dwelling segment (apartments, retirement units, town houses and flats) is expected to register strong growth, as high land cost especially in the Auckland region and the government’s plan to increase affordable housing […]
