The steel industry – the next 10 years
The steel industry’s outlook for the next ten years remains fragile. Company leaders can adopt a strategic approach to ride out uncertainties and mitigate risk while the industry is being reshaped. Despite unprecedented volatility, the first half of 2022 remained strong for steel players, with prices and utilisation higher than historical levels and unprecedented levels of EBITDA margins across most regions. This cycle was driven mainly by positive demand outlook that followed the recovery from disruptions caused by COVID-19, as well as infrastructure spending that was both long overdue and anticipated as part of the recovery stimulus. However, several signs of market slowdown began to appear in early 2022. As a result, steel demand outlooks have been revised downward: in April 2022, the World Steel Association’s short-range outlook was less optimistic than the one from late 2021, and its October 2022 demand forecasts for 2022 and 2023 saw downward revisions of 2.7 and 1.2 percent, respectively. The steel industry is at a crossroads, and the warning signs should not be ignored. Amid many competing sources of change and uncertainty, adopting the right strategy in the years to come—and knowing how and when to recognise the opportunities for resilience—will differentiate the leaders from the laggards. Reasons for this include the ongoing war in Ukraine, waves of COVID-19-related lockdowns in China, and supply chain disruptions, as well as the overall macroeconomic situation, including repercussions from persistently high inflation and rising global interest rates. In steel markets, EBITDA margins and the margin over raw materials (MORM) have significantly declined from previously unseen highs, mainly due to negative market expectations and high energy prices, and players have reacted by idling capacities. In fact, more than 30 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of capacities idled in Europe in the second half of 2022, while […]