Beyond meat? The market for meat substitutes is way overdone
Paul Wood AO Adjunct Professor in Biotechnology, Monash University Meatless burger maker Beyond Meat has just reported quarterly earnings of US$67.3 million – much better than market expectations of US$52.7 million. It is now forecasting sales of US$240 million for the 2019 year, nearly three times that of 2018. But the company is yet to make a profit, let alone one big enough to justify its current market valuation of about US$13 billion. Since it listed on NASDAQ in May, its shares have surged more 700%. Investors’ enthusiasm reflects high hopes in the future fortunes of a company promising to put the sizzle into a meat substitute. Interest is booming in plant-based meat substitutes and lab-grown meat alternatives. The appeal is summed up by Beyond Meat’s mission statement: “By shifting from animal to plant-based meat, we are creating one savoury solution that solves four growing issues attributed to livestock production: human health, climate change, constraints on natural resources and animal welfare.” How realistic is this? The data suggests not very – that meat alternatives might play a positive role but in no way are going to save the planet. Investment appetite Predictions about the market potential for plant-based or lab-made meat vary. A lot of it appears to be only slightly better than sheer guesswork. One prediction, by the well-known Barclays, is that the market could be worth US$140 billion, or 10% of the US$1.4 trillion meat market, in the next 10 years. It’s such projections that have fuelled investors’ appetite for companies working on ways to make plant-based protein look and taste like meat. There’s Impossible Foods, for example, whose burger “bleeds” beetroot juice and is the meat (substitute) in Burger King’s Impossible Whopper. The privately held company has reportedly raised more than US$500 million, and is valued at US$2 billion. Other players in […]