NZ Productivity Organisation

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Could a ‘grey swan’ event bring down the AI revolution? Risks we should be preparing for

Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology The term “black swan” refers to a shocking event on nobody’s radar until it actually happens. This has become a byword in risk analysis since a book called The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently cited example is the 9/11 attacks. Fewer people have heard of “grey swans”. Derived from Taleb’s work, grey swans are rare but more foreseeable events. That is, things we know could have a massive impact, but we don’t (or won’t) adequately prepare for. COVID was a good example: precedents for a global pandemic existed, but the world was caught off guard anyway. Although he sometimes uses the term, Taleb doesn’t appear to be a big fan of grey swans. He’s previously expressed frustration that his concepts are often misused, which can lead to sloppy thinking about the deeper issues of truly unforeseeable risks. But it’s hard to deny there is a spectrum of predictability, and it’s easier to see some major shocks coming. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than in the world of artificial intelligence (AI). Putting our eggs in one basket Increasingly, the future of the global economy and human thriving has become tied to a single technological story: the AI revolution. It has turned philosophical questions about risk into a multitrillion-dollar dilemma about how we align ourselves with possible futures. US tech company Nvidia, which dominates the market for AI chips, recently surpassed US$5 trillion (about A$7.7 trillion) in market value. The “Magnificent Seven” US tech stocks – Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – now make up about 40% of the S&P 500 stock index. The impact of a collapse for these companies – and a stock market bust – would be devastating at a global level, not just financially but also in terms of dashed hopes […]

Before the Robots Roll in, is your system healthy enough to handle innovation?

NZ Manufacturer magazine Guest Article by Theresa Grainger, The Lean Hub & Productivity Excellence Academy. Every manufacturer is striving to lift productivity and much of the current focus is on investing in smarter machines, automated processes and AI. But the real question isn’t what we are going to automate, it is what state we are automating. Because if the system underneath is unhealthy, for example unclear processes, tired teams, neglected assets, then new technology doesn’t fix the instability, it amplifies it. One of the clearest indicators of system health and a direct driver of productivity is how well we maintain the discipline of improvement. In New Zealand, many manufacturers are pushing hard to stay competitive in a tough global economy, yet beneath the surface we are seeing an imbalance. While the PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) cycle is a core framework for improvement, in practice we tend to excel at the “Plan” and “Do” stages. However, the final two steps “Check” and “Act” are often overlooked, limiting our ability to learn, improve, and sustain gains. When productivity slips, our instinct is often to add capacity, new machinery, software, or automation. But more often, the real issue isn’t a lack of resources, it is that silos have formed and people, processes, and systems are no longer aligned or working together effectively. An asset might fail because it wasn’t serviced, but teams often miss their targets for less visible reasons, like unclear communication, blurred accountability, or lack of clear ownership. Just as machines need regular maintenance, so do our organisational systems and leadership. A regular check on system health and culture can reveal the early signs of misalignment before they impact performance. When we build a culture that pauses to reflect, learn and reset, we create the conditions for genuine improvement. It’s not just […]

The hidden role of project engineering in NZ Manufacturing

Smart manufacturing is not just about advanced machines, data, or automation. It is also about how projects are delivered. In New Zealand, where margins are tight and downtime is expensive, project engineering is often the difference between a smooth delivery and one that struggles to get finished. Beyond the Plan Every successful project needs more than a timeline. It needs people who can anticipate risks, make practical decisions in real time, and keep everyone aligned. That is what project engineers do. They combine design knowledge with delivery discipline, bridging the gap between disciplines and helping transition drawings to reality. On capital projects across food processing, heavy industry, and advanced manufacturing, project engineers often make the difference between a clean handover and weeks of extra work and significant variations. They understand both the design intent and the realities of construction. They know when to challenge assumptions, when to push for clarity, and when to make a call on the spot so progress is not lost. Why It Matters Now NZ manufacturers are juggling more complexity than ever: tight labour markets, growing compliance demands, and the high cost of downtime. With stretched teams and costly shutdowns, there is little margin for error when delivering capital projects. Manufacturing projects today carry more moving parts (compliance, cost control, and tighter schedules) which makes disciplined delivery even more important. Project engineers bring that discipline and most importantly technical oversight. By planning ahead, coordinating suppliers, and promptly solving problems, they reduce delays, avoid rework, and keep production running. Real-World Impact We see this value play out across industries. Food Processing Upgrade On a major line expansion, the design work was sound, but the risk lay in how quickly equipment could be installed and commissioned before production needed to resume. A project engineer coordinated trades, validated as-built […]

Age-Inclusive Manufacturing: Making Flexibility Fair on the Factory Floor

By Shyamini Szeko, reflecting on Master’s research into ageing and work in New Zealand manufacturing (AcademyEx, 2025) Why Flexibility Matters “My 32-hour week lets me maintain a healthy sleep schedule and personal life,” one long-serving factory worker told me during my research. That small adjustment meant he could keep working instead of being forced to leave early. But not everyone is offered this chance. In my survey, 86% of manufacturing staff said flexibility is “very important,” yet almost half reported seeing no age-inclusive action in their workplace. The message is clear: older workers want to stay engaged, but workplaces are not keeping pace. Unless manufacturers change course, they risk losing valuable skills and knowledge just when they need them most. The Flexibility Gap On the office side of manufacturing, flexibility is common. Staff can work from home, adjust hours, or take phased retirement. But on the factory floor, older workers face rigid shifts, heavy physical demands, and inconsistent support. As one HR professional told me: “Flexibility simply does not work on the factory floor.” Yet my research shows that is not true. Even modest changes to duties or scheduling can keep people in the workforce for longer. The issue is not whether flexibility can work, but that it is unevenly applied, often depending on the goodwill of a manager instead of fair, transparent policy. Health, Shifts, and Real Lives Rigid shift patterns can take a toll. Fatigue, musculoskeletal strain, and disrupted sleep become harder to manage with age. When schedules are adapted, the impact is immediate. The worker who moved to a 32-hour week is one example. Others told me that reduced rotations or less physically demanding duties made the difference between staying on the job or considering early retirement. Flexibility is not about lowering standards. It is about sustaining […]

From survival to strategy

Creating a business that runs without you Step into almost any Kiwi workshop at 6 a.m. and you’ll find the owner already there, fixing yesterday’s problem before the team clocks in. They’re signing off orders, juggling suppliers, answering calls and putting out fires faster than they ignite. By mid-morning they’ve handled a breakdown, approved a quote, covered for someone off sick, chased an overdue invoice… and by evening they’re back on email. Not by choice, but because if they don’t, no one else will. David Altena is head of Growth & Partnerships at SmartSpace.ai and C0-Founder and Host of The Better SMB Podcast. We call it leadership. In reality, it’s survival with a spreadsheet and it’s no wonder we’re producing 30% less than our OECD peers. Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if your business grinds to a halt the moment you step away, you don’t own a business, you own a job with overheads. That’s no foundation for a high performing business, growth, or succession. Rob is Director of the New Zealand Lean Academy. www.rob@nzla.net Survival isn’t strategy Contrast that with firms operating at a higher level of maturity. Leaders aren’t caught up in the day-to-day, they have clear business plans and measurable KPIs. They hold quarterly reviews where leaders coach instead of firefight. They invest in systems to capture knowledge and create consistency and aren’t reliant on one person’s memory or availability. Their systems are stronger than their heroes. The markers of operational maturity Operational maturity doesn’t come from a new machine or a fresh ERP licence. It comes from design and discipline, doing the boring things brilliantly: Clear purpose and numbers: every employee knows the three metrics that matter most and how their work moves them. Standard work before scale: processes are documented, taught and audited so improvements stick. […]

“We’re working really hard”

-Sean Doherty Across New Zealand’s Government and manufacturing alike, one phrase is repeated almost like a badge of honour: “We’re working really hard.” Yet, when you look at the numbers, it’s clear that hard work isn’t translating into higher productivity. Rising input costs such as wages, electricity, and raw materials continue to eat into profits. Many local manufacturers now find themselves running at full capacity but achieving less output per hour than they did a few years ago. The question leaders should be asking is simple: Are we working harder, or are we working smarter? The Productivity Wake‑Up Call New Zealand’s ongoing productivity slide isn’t a reflection of a lack of effort. It’s a signal that many manufacturers are stuck in a cycle of firefighting meeting daily demands while long-term efficiency initiatives fall down the priority list. True productivity improvement isn’t about longer hours or more pressure; it’s about creating systems that make workflow more efficiently, engaging people to solve problems, and embedding smarter measurement. Becoming more profitable and productive can feel like a daunting challenge when you’re struggling just to get product out the door. But here are my top five tips. Choose just one to focus on for the next 90 days and let me know how it goes. Engage Your People The best productivity ideas often come from the people who do the work every day. Leaders who create time and space for operators, planners, and even office staff to identify improvement opportunities can unlock huge value. Start by running short weekly sessions focused on “fix one thing” improvements. Empower staff to own small wins, such as setup time reduction or improved information flow. When people see that their ideas are acted on, engagement and performance rise together. Measure What Matters Many manufacturers collect a sea of data but […]

NZPO an impartial voice

Media Hawkes Bay Limited, publishers of this magazine, has founded and launched the New Zealand Productivity Organisation (NZPO) to assist in moving manufacturing and business forward. We understand that New Zealand companies may well have their own clients they communicate with regarding productivity. However, New Zealand Manufacturer is an impartial voice and collaborates with many companies for better business and better times. Your company is invited to be a part of NZPO, as we share stories and experiences of our businesses as they tell them to us. And we find ways to greater prosperity. We were extremely concerned that the NZ Productivity Commission ceased with no noticeable feedback and input from the business community. Is it missed? Does anyone care? We intend to find out. Contact publisher@xtra.co.nz or Tel: o27 280 1992 to discuss further and be added to the NZPO Data Base.

New defence strategy opens doors for small businesses and manufacturers

By Hon Chris Penk Growing the New Zealand defence industry offers a significant opportunity for small businesses and manufacturers. Wearing both my hats as the Associate Defence Minister and the Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing, I launched the New Zealand Defence Industry Strategy alongside my colleague and friend Defence Minister Judith Collins in early October. This follows the major Defence Capability Plan released earlier this year, which outlines a path to double defence spending over the next eight years, starting with $12 billion of planned commitments in the first four years. The Defence Industry Strategy shows how Defence and industry will work together to deliver these plans while building a strong, resilient sector that provides economic opportunities for local businesses and opens doors to export markets. Small businesses and manufacturers are at the heart of this approach. New Zealand already has a highly skilled industrial base, with more than eight hundred suppliers providing essential services and capabilities to the Defence Force. The strategy creates pathways for these businesses to grow, take on high-value projects, and work on initiatives that were previously the domain of larger multinational companies. Several practical actions support this aim. Major suppliers will be required to outline how they will collaborate with local companies, and Defence will work with Kiwi innovators to showcase New Zealand-made equipment and services to international partners. The strategy also opens the door to more involvement in projects that deliver and sustain defence capability, from engineering and maintenance to training and commercial services. The establishment of a Technology Accelerator, with an indicative investment of one hundred to three hundred million dollars, will give small and medium-sized enterprises the chance to develop advanced technology with both domestic and export potential. New offshore opportunities will allow Kiwi businesses to access international markets and gain […]

New steel business exemplifies promise of more competitive building products landscape

The Government’s announcement of the new Building Product Specifications (BPS) document, designed to open the doors to thousands of additional building products and bring construction costs down, has been welcomed by the building industry – and one operator has already taken control of long-standing competition issues in the roofing sector. Roofbuddy, the roofing marketplace which brings together homeowners and qualitied roofers to transact, has launched its proprietary roll-forming steel business, Guardian Steel, to address lack of competition, improve service delivery, and offer an end-to-end service to homeowners with complete accountability and transparency. For years, roofers and customers have had to deal with monopolistic control of the steel sector. Historically, NZ Steel (owned by ASX-listed BlueScope in Australia) has been dominant, with over 80% market share. Since Guardian Steel launched – ahead of the Government’s announcement – to offer an alternative, the take-up has been significant: while Guardian Steel is open-market, the main clients initially have been Roofbuddy roofers. They have proved highly receptive to the new, vertically integrated offering, which delivered 48 roofs in its first two weeks on the market. There are 100 current, vetted Roofbuddy service providers all over New Zealand – each one is trade qualified with active Licensed Building Practitioner (LBP) certification and operative public liability insurance. Roofbuddy monitors the quality of their work and checks their performance benchmarks through the company’s on-site 65-point quality assurance framework. The new BPS document includes roofing and wall cladding systems, stating they are eligible when compliant with international standards outlined in the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) guidelines. Guardian Steel’s product is compliant with these standards and the New Zealand Building Code. The Guardian Steel machinery is made in New Zealand for local conditions by Angus Robertson Mechanical, a Rangiora-based world leader in roll-forming machine manufacture. The […]

Supporting manufacturers to succeed

By Hon Chris Penk, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing While the Government has been setting out a pro-growth agenda, a question I often hear when I visit manufacturers or speak to business audiences is: what support is available for firms that want to expand and contribute to a stronger economy? For those who haven’t come across it yet, I want to highlight the Regional Business Partner (RBP) Network. This nationwide programme, delivered in partnership with business chambers, economic development agencies and the national provider Poutama Trust, offers practical, tailored support to help small businesses grow. The past financial year has been one of the strongest yet for the RBP Network. Nearly 4,500 businesses engaged with the programme, which is the highest number outside the COVID-19 response. That’s a seven per cent increase on the previous year, and 13 per cent higher than in 2022/23. This growing uptake tells us that business owners value the advice and connections on offer, and that word-of-mouth recommendations are carrying real weight. One example of what this support can achieve is Coastwood Furniture, a long-established manufacturer in Greymouth. Known for solid timber furniture designed for both retail and commercial clients, Coastwood has been in business for more than 25 years. Like many regional firms, it faces challenges: rising operating costs, softening retail demand, and limited access to experienced leadership talent. Within the company, some staff had stepped into management roles without formal training. Across its retail network, staff were not always equipped to present Coastwood products consistently. With support from Development West Coast through the RBP programme, Coastwood put targeted training in place. This included leadership development workshops, advanced health and safety training, and a “train the trainer” sales initiative to help retail partners around the country. The impact has been clear. Leaders […]

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NZ Productivity Organisation