Forward indicators were pointing to an upturn for the New Zealand economy until the Christchurch earthquake, according to the BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the March quarter 2011.
The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast incorporates BusinessNZ’s Economic Conditions Index (ECI) which tracks 33 indicators, including GDP, export volumes, commodity prices and inflation, debt and confidence figures.
The ECI for the March quarter – prior to the Christchurch earthquake – had improved 6 points from the previous quarter.
However, growth for 2011 will be severely dented through production foregone in the wake of the earthquake.
On the positive side, commodities exports are going from strength to strength, taking New Zealand’s terms of trade to a 35-year high.ÊÊ
Continuing robust growth in New Zealand’s major trading partners Australia and China is a positive indicator for 2012.
The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the December quarter 2010 is here on www.businessnz.org.nz