Productivity and Wages
By Dieter Adam, Chief Executive NZMEA At the first Leaders’ debate of the 2017 general election, productivity received some discussion, with the Prime Minister dismissing claims that productivity in New Zealand was low by comparison and not showing any signs of improvement. Following this, there was a number of quality pieces of work on the issue, specifically by Newsroom’s Bernard Hickey and ex RBNZ economist, Michael Riddell – you can see a summary of these articles on the NZMEA website. Today I want to discuss some of the data they bought up and particularly focus on the core link between wages and productivity. The debate referred to a recent JB Were report showing trends for GDP per person and GDP per hour worked, with the former growing at around 1% and the latter actually falling currently. The Prime Minister stated that, “JB Were are just wrong. They are way over-stating the case.” As other evidence of the problem, there was a recent OECD report, which we have discuss previously. This showed New Zealand’s flat to slightly negative labour productivity trend over the last 20 years, and at significantly lower levels than the United States and Australia. Michael Reddell posted a related graph on his blog, showing that in terms of real GDP per hour worked, from 2008 to around the end of 2012, we saw similar low but positive results as Australia. However, since around the start of 2013, New Zealand’s real GDP per hour worked has been flat, while Australia’s has continued to increase. The other problem we face with low productivity growth is how much – or how little – room there is for wages to grow. As our manufacturing members well know, the core driver for what a business can afford to pay its staff is their […]