Room for RBNZ to cut rates
The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during February 2016, shows total sales in January 2016 decreased 18.58% (year on year export sales decreased by 25.06% with domestic sales decreasing 1.45%) on January 2015. The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$216m in annualised sales, with an export content of 67%. Net confidence fell to 12, down from 18 in December. The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 99.3, down from 101 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 97, down from 100 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 102.83, down on the last result of 107.83. Anything over 100 indicates expansion. Constraints reported were 59% markets, 24% skilled staff, and 18% production capacity. There was no net change in productivity for January. Staff numbers for January increased 2.07% year on year. Tradespersons, supervisors, managers, and professional/scientists reported a moderate shortage and operators/labourers reported a minor shortage. “There appears to be some struggles showing for manufacturers in terms of export demand, with year-on-year export sales staying negative for four months. This is likely reflecting a continuing uncertain international environment and a number of soft export markets dampening demand. Domestic sales were slightly down, after positive year-on-year increases the last two months.” says NZMEA Chief Executive Dieter Adam. “In recent months, despite some challenges in export markets and international conditions, confidence and indexes of performance, forecast and change, have been showing positive expectations of the future. However, January results showed the performance index, which includes profitability, cashflow and exchange rate, as well as the change indexes, moving down into contraction. The forecast measure, which has been exceptionally positive in recent months, moved […]