By EMA Head of Export and Manufacturing Simon Devoy

From supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions to tariff disputes and shifting trade alliances, business disruption seems to arrive from all angles, often with little warning.

For exporters and manufacturers, the challenge is constant. How should they respond? How should they prepare?

These are some of the issues Dr Alan Bollard has dealt with throughout his career and continues to examine today.

Ahead of his keynote appearance at the EMA’s Global X Summit on 15 September, EMA Head of Export and Manufacturing Simon Devoy, spoke with Dr Bollard about the forces reshaping global trade and what New Zealand exporters should be paying attention to.

After decades at the forefront of economic policy and international trade, Bollard is currently reflecting on a more confronting reality. He is writing a book titled Darkside Economics, which examines how economic tools can be used not just to grow economies, but to damage them.

“It’s about how to use economics to damage economies and how to defend yourself,” he says.

“It’s something that, 10 years ago, I wouldn’t have thought about. And it’s a bit of a sad reflection on what’s happening today.”

That observation goes to the heart of what is shaping the global economy right now. Trade is no longer only about efficiency and growth. It’s increasingly entangled with power politics, strategic competition and national security.

For Dr Bollard, any credible discussion about the outlook has to begin with geopolitics.

“When we talk about what’s happening in terms of trade policies, trade tensions and geopolitical tensions, that takes you straight into the US and China,” he says.

Europe still matters, but in his view it’s “a little bit less pressing” compared with the forces emanating from the world’s two largest economies.

Those forces are already reshaping global trade. China is going through significant internal adjustment while redirecting its export strategy and increasingly looking beyond the United States.

Much of that shift relates to Southeast Asia, a region Dr Bollard believes deserves far more attention from New Zealand exporters.

“With the changes going on, China has changed a lot of its focus and a lot of that relates to Southeast Asia as well,” he says.

Supply chains and production networks across ASEAN are being reshaped. Countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia are moving into more advanced manufacturing, while intra-regional trade is becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Just as importantly, these economies are becoming wealthier, creating new consumer markets alongside their production capabilities.

There is also a strategic lesson in how these countries operate. “In a way, New Zealand can look to ASEAN countries for how to get on with the two big elephants in the room, the security one, the US, and the economic one, China,” he says.

At the same time, the global environment is being shaped by more immediate risks. Energy markets are a clear example. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are already creating ripple effects, particularly through petrochemical supply chains.

“There are fuel shortages right through the region,” Dr Bollard says. “And that’s only now starting to flow down through a whole bunch of sectors.

“If the Iranian oil embargo is still happening by September, we could be talking about global recession and how you get through that.”

Even a partial resolution would leave lasting effects on prices and supply chains. Energy also connects to a longer-term challenge exporters cannot ignore. The transition towards renewables is reshaping investment decisions. For New Zealand, this links directly to electricity generation, industrial energy use and the role of renewables in supporting export industries.

Overlaying that is the ongoing reality of climate change.

“Just because APEC isn’t allowed to talk about it, doesn’t mean it’s gone away. It’s got worse,” Dr Bollard says.

Questions around emissions, including in sectors such as dairy, remain unresolved and will continue to influence market access and consumer expectations.

There are also opportunities within this transition. Large-scale industrial policy, particularly in China, has significantly reduced the cost of technologies such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles.

Lower-cost technology can ease inflation pressures while opening new opportunities for adoption and export.

For New Zealand exporters, these changes sit alongside a more longstanding issue: how much value we create from what we sell.

Dr Bollard is direct in his assessment that New Zealand has not always made the most of its position. In some cases, we continue to rely heavily on exporting raw or lightly processed goods.

Other countries are capturing more of the upside. In dairy, for example, markets such as Singapore import New Zealand milk powder and generate significantly higher returns through processing, branding and distribution.

The broader lesson is that value is increasingly created through the likes of intellectual property, marketing and customer relationships.

That challenge is not limited to traditional industries. It also extends to emerging areas such as artificial intelligence.

Dr Bollard’s perspective reflects his policy background. Efforts are underway to create greater alignment on AI frameworks across economies, including work in APEC on AI documentation, certification and governance approaches.

Progress is uneven, with major powers taking different approaches to regulation. For businesses, the opportunity lies in using these technologies to better understand markets, manage risk and respond to volatility, even as the broader rules continue to evolve.

Across all of these themes, one conclusion stands out: the global economy is becoming more complex, more contested and harder to predict.

For New Zealand exporters, that reality cannot be controlled, but it can be prepared for. That preparation means looking beyond immediate markets, understanding changing supply chains, learning from regions such as Southeast Asia and investing in capability.